Economic News:

Rand softens on poor US GDP

The rand gave up some of its gains in late afternoon trade as a worse-than-expected fourth quarter GDP releases.

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The rand gave up some of Friday's gains in late afternoon trade as a worse-than-expected fourth quarter GDP releases saw growth currencies such as the Australian dollar, Brazilian real and rand sold.

“The rand has gained more than 20 cents in the past three days, so it was looking over-bought even before the disappointing US GDP release,” a local rand trader said.

“The rand has done very well this week and is set to continue next week. The only fly in the ointment is the eurozone crisis as that has not yet been solved. If the euro tanks, we will follow,” another trader said.

Friday's best level was 7.74 against the dollar from Wednesday's worst level of 8.06 per dollar.

At 16:04 local time, the rand was trading at R7.7845 to the dollar from its previous close of R7.8192. It was trading at R10.2045 to the euro from R10.2301 before, and at R12.2243 against sterling from R12.2495 previously.

The euro was trading at US$1.3108 from its previous close of US$1.3087.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that the US dollar rose against most other major currencies in the moments after a report on Friday showed fourth-quarter US gross domestic product fell short of forecasts.

A disappointing GDP report is a sign that economic growth might not be as strong as thought, which typically leads investors to sell growth-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar and buy perceived safe harbours like the US dollar.

US GDP rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter, short of the 3.0% economists had forecast as personal consumption spending grew more slowly than expected.

Eurozone leaders might meet on Monday evening to discuss Greece's latest problems in reducing its debt levels, the Financial Times Deutschland reported on Friday.

An additional meeting of eurozone leaders immediately after the official European Union summit on Monday could be ruled out, the newspaper said, citing people close to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy.

However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were against such a meeting, according to the report.

European Union Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn warned on Thursday that eurozone governments might have to increase their contribution to Greece's debt deal, as Greece and its private-sector creditors struggled to reach agreement on the level of write-downs. - I-Net Bridge



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Charts show JSE overheated

South African stocks edge lower, with the All-share index slipping 0.2 percent, hit by concerns that valuations may be overstretched after the index topped 34,000 for the first time in its 17-year history.

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South African stocks edge lower, with the All-share index slipping 0.2 percent, hit by concerns that valuations may be overstretched after the index topped 34,000 for the first time in its 17-year history on Thursday.

Companies that have recently racked up hefty gains, such as miner Anglo American are among the decliners.

Anglo American is down 1.5 percent at 331.80, after surging nearly 14 percent this month.

Charts also show the index in overbought territory: the All-share's 14-day RSI is hovering near the overbought 70 level, and the index is also trading near its upper Bollinger band.

Both indicators are normally seen as sell signals by technical traders. - Reuters



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JSE trims losses on gold shares

The JSE was off the session lows in midday trade, supported mainly by the upward momentum in gold stocks.

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The JSE was off the session lows in midday trade on Friday, supported mainly by the upward momentum in gold stocks. The index surged nearly 5% at the closing bell on Thursday, driven by the spot price of yellow metal.

At 12.00, the JSE all-share index was 0.23% lower to 33.986.37 points, with gold index up 0.88%, while resources shed 0.64% and platinum shares lost 0.17%.

Banks gained 0.59%, financials edged up 0.24%, and industrials were down 0.17%.

Gold was trading at US$1,723.72 a troy ounce from US$1,727.84 at the JSE's previous close, while platinum was at quoted at US$1,614.50/oz, from US$1,617.50/oz at the previous close.

“There is still a sense of nervousness in the market mainly due to unresolved Greek debt issue. Another issue that is of concern to investors is the rising bond yields in Portugal,” said Viv Govender, market analyst at Vunani Private Clients Services.

European stock markets traded lower on Friday, as increasing uncertainty around reaching a Greek debt swap agreement continued to hamper sentiment, sending banking stocks sharply lower across the region, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

At noon local time london's FTSE 100 was down 0.28% to 5,779.02 points.

Greece and its private-sector creditors agreed to meet again on Friday in a race to negotiate a EUR100 billion debt write-down for the country, but as discussions continue, “it appears that private bond holders and officials are standing firm over the same issue of the coupon and are unable to move forward with neither side willing to compromise,” said Capital Spreads.

As a result, market participants adopt a cautious stance heading into the weekend, reluctant to build exposure to equities while the Greek debt saga continues.

Investors will also be looking to the fourth quarter gross domestic product data in the US, due out later in the day.

On the JSE, AngloGold Ashanti was up R2.41 to R359.10, Gold Fields (GFI) added R1.43 or 1.10% to R131.43, and Harmony (HAR) lifted 88 cents at R94.25.

Anglo American (AGL) was down R4.75 or 1.41% to R332.25, BHP Billiton (BIL) lost R2.88 or 1.06% to R268.48 and Sasol (SOL) slipped 25 cents to R399.50.

Platinum miner Amplats (AMS) was down 70 cents to R558.30, while Lonmin (LON) gave up R1 to R134.

In industrials, British American Tobacco (BTI) collected R2.40 to R365.40, but Barloworld (BAW) lost R1.07 or 1.24% at R85.33.

Murray and Roberts (MUR) gained 64 cents or 2.36% to R27.74.

JD Group (JDG) lost R1.25 or 2.53% to R48.25. - I-Net Bridge



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Rand steady at 7.80 against US dollar

The rand was steady against the dollar in noon trade, even though the eurozone debt crisis loomed in the background.

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The rand was steady against the dollar in noon trade on Friday, even though the eurozone debt crisis loomed in the background.

“The rand this morning started off more or less where it is now and it's tracking the euro which continues to pivot around US$1.310 in very limited levels of action,” a local rand trader said.

“Europe is still rather precarious even though earlier in the week we had good news from the FOMC.”

The trader added that the market had no real direction at present and was “living on rumours”.

“US GDP comes out later today but I really don't know how much effect it will have. I expect to see a little bit more dollar buying as we move closer to the weekend.”

At 11:48 local time, the rand was trading at R7.8026 to the dollar from its previous close of R7.8192. It was trading at R10.2282 to the euro from R10.2301 before, and at R12.2432 against sterling from R12.2495 previously.

The euro was trading at US$1.3121 from its previous close of US$1.3087.

RMB said in a note on Friday morning, that the rand had finally experienced a good move yesterday with the dollar/rand dropping all the way to 7.79. There had also been some gains on the other crosses, notably the British pound and yen and even compatriot currencies such as the Aussie dollar.

RMB added that euro/rand had also pushed lower, but a break of the 10.20 level was a major piece of the puzzle that needed to be in place to keep rand gains going.

There were tentative signs that a different piece of the puzzle was starting to fall into place, RMB said.

“Foreigners were aggressive buyers of our bonds yesterday and while the data is exceptionally volatile, you can start to see a trend towards buying. This pattern is more evident in the EPFR data, which showed that international investors turned aggressive buyers of emerging market bonds in the week ended Wednesday.”

RMB said the rand's short-term moves would depend mostly on euro/dollar, which had fared well after the dovish Fed announcement.

“Event risk is largely confined to this afternoon's US 4Q11 GDP number. Expectations are that the world's largest economy ended the year on a very strong note.”

Meanwhile Dow Jones Newswires quoted Credit Agricole as saying that the euro was increasingly resilient as it had shrugged off negative news in the eurozone over recent weeks. This was in spite of on-going debt discussions in Greece and worries about a potential Portuguese debt restructuring.

Credit Agricole also saw the euro/dollar consolidating its gains ahead the European Union's summit on Monday.

Eurozone leaders might meet on Monday evening to discuss Greece's latest problems in reducing its debt levels, the Financial Times Deutschland reported Friday.

An additional meeting of eurozone leaders immediately after the official European Union summit on Monday could be ruled out, the newspaper said, citing people close to European Council President Herman Van Rompuy.

However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were against such a meeting, according to the report.

European Union Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn warned on Thursday that eurozone governments might have to increase their contribution to Greece's debt deal, as Greece and its private-sector creditors struggled to reach agreement on the level of writedowns. - I-Net Bridge



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JSE slips at open on consolidation

The JSE slipped during its opening session amid some consolidation following the previous day's strong rally.

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The JSE slipped during its opening session on Friday amid some consolidation following the previous day's strong rally.

The local exchange set a fresh record on Thursday, after breaking the previous 33,949.41 points on the all-share index reached on January 23.

“There has been risk taking on the global stage. Our market is already up 6% this year,” said Nick Kunze, head of dealing at BJM Private Client Services. “Given that it is still January, it's not surprising that the market is consolidating.”

At 9.20, the JSE all-share index was 0.37% lower at 33.937.94. The gold index dipped 0.04%, while resources shed 0.73% and platinum shares lost 0.52%.

Banks were flat (0.05%), as were financials (0.08%), and industrials edged down 0.19%.

Gold was trading at US$1,717.49 a troy ounce from US$1,727.84 at the JSE's previous close, while platinum was at quoted at US$1,607/oz, from US$1,617.50/oz at the previous close.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that European stock markets were expected to open lower, as investors paused for breath following strong gains, but increasing uncertainty around reaching a Greek debt swap agreement continued to hamper sentiment.

“The end of the week looks somewhat less positive than recent days with a 'risk off' tone ensuing overnight,” said Credit Agricole. Growing confidence about the US economic outlook following the Federal Reserve's pledge to hold rates low for a longer period was tempered somewhat by a batch of downbeat US data Thursday, with an unexpected drop in sales of new homes for December.

Market participants also preferred to take a conservative approach amid continued talks between the Greek government and private-sector creditors. Greece and its private-sector creditors agreed to meet again Friday in a race to negotiate a EUR100 billion debt write-down for the country.

Most Asian stock markets eked out small gains on Friday, though caution over Greece's debt woes and some earnings disappointments pegged demand.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average was flat, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.4%.

On the JSE, Anglo American (AGL) was down R3 to R334, BHP Billiton (BIL) lost R3.29 to R268.01 and Sasol (SOL) shed R2.24 to R397.51.

In gold stocks, AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) was down 68 cents to R356.01, Harmony (HAR) slipped 29 cents to R93.08.

Platinum miner Amplats (AMS) was down R3 to R556, but Aquarius Platinum (AQP) edged up 15 cents to R23.50.

In industrials, British American Tobacco (BTI) collected 99 cents to R363.99, while SAB (SAB) lost R1.35 to R298.20.

Nedbank (NED) lost 50 cents to R155.50, while Absa (ASA) rose 42 cents to R148.92. - I-Net Bridge



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Rand at 7.80 against US dollar

The rand was a tad firmer against the dollar in early trade as it tracked a buoyant euro and as risk-on trade returned.

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The rand was a tad firmer against the dollar in early trade on Friday as it tracked a buoyant euro and as risk-on trade returned.

“After the announcement from the FOMC earlier this week, risk-on trade is back and commodity currencies will do well,” a local currency trader said.

“For the rand, the fly in the ointment is the euro - as long as there are no bad headlines from the eurozone, the local currency should thrive.”

At 08:45 local time, the rand was trading at R7.8095 to the dollar from its previous close of R7.8192. It was trading at R10.2311 to the euro from R10.2301 before, and at R12.2426 against sterling from R12.2495 previously.

The euro was trading at US$1.3108 from its previous close of US$1.3087.

RMB said in a note on Friday morning, that the rand finally experienced a good move yesterday with the dollar/rand dropping all the way to 7.79. There had also been some gains on the other crosses, notably the British pound and yen and even compatriot currencies such as the Aussie dollar.

RMB added that euro/rand had also pushed lower, but a break of the 10.20 level was a major piece of the puzzle that needed to be in place to keep rand gains going.

There were tentative signs that a different piece of the puzzle was starting to fall into place, RMB said.

“Foreigners were aggressive buyers of our bonds yesterday and while the data is exceptionally volatile, you can start to see a trend towards buying. This pattern is more evident in the EPFR data, which showed that international investors turned aggressive buyers of emerging market bonds in the week ended Wednesday.”

RMB said the rand's short-term moves would depend mostly on euro dollar, which had fared well after the dovish Fed announcement.

“Event risk is largely confined to this afternoon's US 4Q11 GDP number. Expectations are that the world's largest economy ended the year on a very strong note.”

Meanwhile Dow Jones Newswires reported that the dollar fell further against the yen during Asian trading on Friday as it struggled to recover from the US Federal Reserve's surprising announcement on Wednesday that it planned to hold rates exceptionally low until at least late 2014, while attention gradually shifted back to on-going Greek debt talks.

Analysts said that while the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate projections was lingering, the focus of the market was also back on the eurozone crisis, notably Greece's on-going debt negotiations and Portugal's worsening debt situation.

The market would closely monitor what European Central Bank President Mario Draghi had to say during a speech later in the day.

“With uncertainty over the future developments in the European sovereign debt crisis, the euro will continue to fall,” said Sumino Kamei, senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, adding that attention would also be given to Monday's European Union summit meeting and whether progress would be made on a proposed EUR100 billion debt write down between Greece and its private-sector creditors.

Portugal was also in the spotlight, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that investors, economists and politicians are becoming concerned the country will struggle to refinance the equivalent of US$11.64 billion in debt due in 2013.

The market would also keep an eye on US gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 to be released later in the day. A Dow Jones survey of economists expected an annualised 3.0% growth rate compared with 1.8% in the previous quarter.

Kengo Suzuki, forex strategist at Mizuho Securities, said that strong US growth figures could improve investor sentiment and lead to further dollar selling, although he added that market reaction to the figures was likely to be limited. - I-Net Bridge



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Rand firms to 7.78 against US dollar

South Africa's rand touched a near 3-month high against the US dollar.

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South Africa's rand touched a near 3-month high against the dollar and government bonds extended gains, tracking a global market rally as favourable US jobs data boosted risk appetite.

The rand was up 1.2 percent at 7.79/dollar by 15:48 SA time after briefly touching 7.78, its strongest level since October 31.

The yield on the 2015 bond fell as much as 19 basis points to a two-month low of 6.47 percent while that for the 2026 bond was down 15.5 basis points at 8.22 percent. - Reuters



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JSE sets another record high

The JSE set another record high in midday trade.

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The JSE set another record high in midday trade on Thursday, piercing through the 34,000 mark on the all-share index on firmer risk appetite.

At 12:08 local time, the JSE all-share index rallied 1.29% to 34,071.76 points, led by gold shares up 4.01%, resources strengthened 2.25%, and platinum shares added 1.57%.

Banks moved up 1.50%, financials gathered 1.10% and industrials picked up 0.56%.

The rand firmed to 7.82 to the dollar from 8.03 at the JSE's close on Wednesday. Gold lifted to US$1,716.09 a troy ounce from US$1,652.64 at the JSE's previous close, while platinum was quoted at US$1,609/oz, from US$1,547/oz at the previous close.

Kevin Algeo, market analyst at Imara SP Reid, said the local bourse drew support from the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates lower until 2014. “This set a bearish tone for the US dollar but additional stimulus in the system, which supported the gold price.”

European stock markets also pushed higher, lifted by the Fed's stance on interest rates, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

London's FTSE 100 was up 0.91% to 5,775.32 points.

Previously, the Fed had said it expected the period of exceptionally low rates to last until mid-2013, so an extension of the low-rate environment prompted market participants to increase their appetite for risk. “Our own view is that low inflation, especially if commodity price comparatives continue to ease in 2012, should enable the Fed to be tending towards supporting the economy rather than [adopting a] tightening policy,” said Shore Capital.

Markets will keep an eye out for further reports regarding the Greek debt swap agreement. Analysts at Credit Agricole said that the stalemate of the Greek debt talks remained a significant downside risk, curbing rallies.

On the JSE, AngloGold Ashanti surged R11.54 or 3.39% to R351.70, Gold Fields (GFI) jumped R6.14 or 4.96% to R129.84, and Harmony (HAR) lifted R3.69 or 4.06% at R94.50.

Anglo American (AGL) was up R5.33 or 1.62% to R335.33. The mining conglomerate achieved solid production increases in five of its seven major commodities in the fourth quarter of 2011, namely iron ore, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, copper and nickel.

However, both platinum and diamonds suffered production decreases due largely to safety stoppage issues at Anglo American Platinum and waste stripping and maintenance at De Beers' operations.

BHP Billiton (BIL) gained R6.41 or 2.42% to R271.04 and Sasol (SOL) added R7.29 or 1.85% to R400.89.

Lonmin (LON) jumped R5.68 or 4.39% to R134.99. The platinum miner reported that platinum metal in concentrate and refined platinum production increased by 3.5% and 24.3% respectively on a year-on-year basis. “These results benefited from a healthy opening ore stock position at the end of September 2011 and consistent metallurgical recovery rates,” the company said as it released its first 2012 production report & interim management statement.

Standard Bank (SBK) was up R1.70 or 1.61% to R107.

Among industrials, Barloworld (BAW) lifted R3.10 or 3.61% to R89. - I-Net Bridge



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Rand firms to 7.84 against US dollar

The rand was firmer against the US dollar.

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The rand was firmer against the dollar in noon trade on Thursday following a more-dovish-than-expected FOMC meeting, at which the Fed indicated that rates would stay at the their current all-time lows until the end of 2014.

“The FOMC announcement was quite a surprise,” a market analyst said.

“After that the dollar sold off quite strongly which supported the rand.”

“We continue to favour long rand positions but there could be some consolidation around 7.80,” the analyst added.

At 11:47 local time, the rand was trading at R7.8492 to the dollar from its previous close of R7.8736. It was trading at R10.3089 to the euro from R10.3133 before, and at R12.3081 against sterling from R12.3176 previously.

The euro was trading at US$1.3143 from its previous close of US$1.3106.

Meanwhile Dow Jones Newswires reported that the Federal Reserve had boosted market sentiment by saying it would likely keep interest rates low until at least late 2014.

Previously, the Fed had said it expected the period of exceptionally low rates to last until mid-2013, so an extension of the low-rate environment prompted market participants to increase their appetite for risk.

“Our own view is that low inflation, especially if commodity price comparatives continue to ease in 2012, should enable the Fed to be tending towards supporting the economy rather than [adopting a] tightening policy,” said Shore Capital.

It added that while economic growth had been better-than-expected in the US, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference on Wednesday highlighted the willingness and ability of the central bank to provide more stimulus.

“For the time being, we would suggest risk assets are supported by better than expected US economic data, and the European Central Bank's willingness for balance sheet expansion to stave off the sovereign debt crises,” added Shore Capital. - I-Net Bridge



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JSE All-share hits record high

South Africa's broad All-share index hit a record high, breaking above the 34,000 mark for the first time.

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South Africa's broad All-share index hit a record high on Thursday, breaking above the 34,000 mark for the first time, as gold miners such as Harmony Gold surged on a jump in the price of bullion.

The All-share, the broadest measure of Johannesburg stock performance, rose as high as 34,019.70 as of 11:45 SA time, eclipsing its former record of 33,949.41.

The benchmark Top-40 index rose as high as 30,459.01, its highest since May 2008. - Reuters



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IMPEX Treasury Solutions (FSB no. 33931) is a leading foreign exchange risk management company, specialising in providing importers, exporters, fund managers and private individuals with expert advice and products to minimise currency risk. 

Situated in the Western Cape, the core of our business is the fruit, wine, fishing and textile industries. We have become specialists in these areas and have sound business relationships with all local and international banks. We are market leaders, specialising in foreign exchange products and systems, and are committed to staying ahead of competitors. 

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